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Managing the Middle-Income Transition

Challenges Facing the People’s Republic of China Edited by Juzhong Zhuang, Asian Development Bank, Philippines, Paul Vandenberg, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand and Yiping Huang, Peking University, the People’s Republic of China
The growth model of the People’s Republic of China has been based on high investments, exports, low-cost advantage, and government interventions. This model has successfully transformed the country from a low-income to an upper middle-income economy. However, the model has generated contradictions that could undermine future growth. Making the transition to high income requires greater reliance on efficiency and productivity improvement, innovation, and market competition. This book examines the challenges faced by the People’s Republic of China in sustaining robust growth, and policy options for making a successful transition to a high-income economy to avoid getting caught in the middle-income trap.
In Association with the Asian Development Bank
Extent: 592 pp
Hardback Price: $196.00 Web: $176.40
Publication Date: 2015
ISBN: 978 1 78347 769 2
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The growth model of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been based on high investment and exports, a low-cost advantage, and government interventions. This model has successfully transformed the country from a low-income to an upper middle-income economy. However, the model has generated contradictions that could undermine future growth. Making the transition to high income requires greater reliance on efficiency, productivity, innovation, and market competition.

This book examines the challenges faced by the PRC in sustaining robust growth and offers policy options for making a successful transition to high income while avoiding the middle-income trap. Chapters focus on all aspects of the PRC’s economy including: the growth model, the role of government, industrial upgrading, the financial sector, fiscal management, human capital, the services sector, urbanization, labor market transitions, aging and the pension system, income inequality, managing external economic relations, and water scarcity.

Policy analysts, researchers, academics, and students interested in the growth and development prospects of the PRC will find this book invaluable, as will practitioners and policymakers in government agencies and international organizations.


Contributors: L. Brandt, F. Cai, J. Huang, Y. Huang, K. Jia, Y. Jiang, X. Lei, L. Li, J. Liu, Y.F. Lommen, N. Lustig, J. Ros, L. Song, P. Vandenberg, G. Wan, M. Wang, W.T. Woo, L. R.Wray, J. Xu, Y. Yao, C. Zhang, Y. Zhao, J.Zhuang
Contents:

Foreword by Takehiko Nakao

Preface

PART I OVERVIEW AND SYNTHESIS
1. The Middle-income Transition Challenge: An Introduction
Juzhong Zhuang, Paul Vandenberg and Yiping Huang

2. Sustaining Long-term Growth: Challenges and Risks
Juzhong Zhuang, Paul Vandenberg, and Yiping Huang

3. Avoiding the Middle-income Trap: Policy Options and Long-term Outlook
Juzhong Zhuang, Paul Vandenberg, and Yiping Huang

PART II REFORM AND REBALANCING IN NATIONAL AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
4. From Economic Miracle to Normal Development
Yiping Huang

5. The Role of Government in Economic Growth
Yang Yao

6. The Global Dimension of Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth
Ligang Song

7. Lessons from Catch-up Growth in East Asia
Wing Thye Woo

8. Crises, Exchange Rate Management, and Inequality: Lessons from Latin America
Nora Lustig and Jaime Ros

PART III MACROECONOMIC AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES
9. Monetary and Fiscal Operations: A Look at the Options
Yolanda Fernandez Lommen and L. Randall Wray

10. Public Finance and Fiscal Sustainability
Jia Kang and Junmin Liu

11. Industrial Upgrading: Experiences and Policy Lessons
Loren Brandt

12. Industrial Upgrading: Can Progress Continue?
Paul Vandenberg

13. Striving for a Strong Services Sector
Jianguo Xu

14. Managing Urbanization
Lixing Li

PART IV SOCIAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
15. Making Growth more Inclusive
Guanghua Wan and Juzhong Zhuang

16. Demographic Change and Its Consequences for the Labor Market
Fang Cai

17. Education and Human Capital Development
Meiyan Wang

18. Old-age Support and Protection
Xiaoyan Lei, Chuanchuan Zhang, and Yaohui Zhao

19. Managing Water Resources for Sustainable Growth
Yi Jiang and Jingmin Huang

Index