China’s Economic Growth Prospects

From Demographic Dividend To Reform Dividend

Cai Fang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China

In this book Cai Fang explores the contribution of demographic transition to economic growth in China’s reform period, depicts the population factors causing the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century, analyses the challenges facing its long-term sustainability when the demographic dividend is disappearing, and proposes important policy remedies. He suggests that in order to avoid the middle-income trap, China's economic growth has to transform from an inputs-driven pattern to a productivity-driven pattern, which requires eliminating several institutional obstacles.

‘Cai Fang has led Chinese and international understanding of the links between Chinese population and economic development over the past two decades. He has defined relationships that have been centrally important to structural change in China, with immense implications for the rest of the world. This book brings together the wisdom from decades of research at the frontiers of knowledge. It is essential reading for anyone wanting to understand today's world economy.’
– Ross Garnaut, University of Melbourne, Australia

‘Cai Fang's book, China's Economic Growth Prospects, is masterful. This is a book only he could write. Dr Cai takes decades of theory and observations on the world's experience in growth and development, explains it in fully digestible terms and then applies it in a nuanced and understandable way to the reality of what happened, and what is happening, in China. It is a book that is full of hope; it is a book fraught with warnings. It is the only book I know of that truly captures today's China.’
– Scott Rozelle, Senior Fellow, Stanford University, US

2016 256 pp Hardback 978 1 78100 584 2 £110.70 £85.00 $110.70 $123.00

Elgaronline 978 1 78100 585 9

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