Escalation Management in International Crises

Hardback

Escalation Management in International Crises

The United States and its Adversaries

9781800887312 Edward Elgar Publishing
Edited by Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Department of Government Politics and National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland and Egle E. Murauskaite, Senior Faculty Specialist, ICONS Project, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland, US
Publication Date: February 2023 ISBN: 978 1 80088 731 2 Extent: 296 pp
Based on cutting-edge research by an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts, this insightful and timely book considers the role of great power competition in what has come to be known as gray zone conflict. Taking the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop for some of its critical evaluation, it also examines US and NATO approaches to the management of escalation in asymmetric conflicts, and proposes innovative tools for managing crises in the future.

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Critical Acclaim
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This insightful and timely book considers the role of great-power competition in what has come to be known as gray zone conflict. Based on cutting-edge empirical research, it addresses the question: how can interactions between adversaries in international crises be managed in ways which avoid dangerous escalation?

Drawing together diverse perspectives, an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts take a data-driven approach to analyzing international crises over the past 100 years. Taking the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop for critical evaluation, chapters examine US and NATO approaches to the management of escalation in asymmetric conflicts. Ultimately, the book identifies areas where classical deterrence theory is incompatible with the realities of the contemporary conflict environment, and proposes innovative tools for managing crises in the future.

Providing historical overviews of escalation management in international crises, this comprehensive book is essential reading for students and scholars of international politics, international relations, terrorism and security, and foreign policy, particularly those studying Chinese, Russian and US strategic decision making. It will also be beneficial to policy analysts, military leaders, and journalists focusing on contemporary international issues.

Critical Acclaim
‘As great power competition moves into a gray zone between peace and war, this impressive team of experts provides state-of-the-art analysis and decision-making tools on how to prevent crisis escalation in this new era. A must-read for scholars and practitioners of international security and indeed for a public concerned with contemporary trends.’
– Etel Solingen, University of California Irvine, US

‘Finally, we have a comprehensive assessment of escalation management in today's crises. In this ambitious volume, the contributors expose how prior understandings of deterrence and escalation by scholars and practitioners alike have proven inadequate to explain the realities of contemporary gray zone competition and proxy conflicts among the great powers. The authors excel in providing both diagnosis and prescription regarding threats to American security and influence. They do this through combining the strengths of different analytical approaches including quantitative examinations of 100-years of international crises, computational modeling, survey research, and simulations. Readers will gain a clear sense of the current state of the foreign policy toolkit available to manage tensions in places like Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait and how that toolkit needs to evolve going forward.’
– Kyle Beardsley, Duke University, US
Contributors
Contributors include: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Corinne S. DeFrancisci, Robert J. Elder, Devin H. Ellis, Alexander H. Levis, Egle E. Murauskaite, David Quinn, Catarina P.Thomson, Jonathan Wilkenfeld
Contents
Contents:

Introduction: managing escalation in international crises 1
Jonathan Wilkenfeld and Egle E. Murauskaite
1 International crises and the gray zone: tracing crises through history 17
Egle E. Murauskaite
2 Gray zone: defining the space in between 30
Allison Astorino-Courtois
3 Conceptual framework for managing international crises, 1990–2020 52
Egle E. Murauskaite and Allison Astorino-Courtois
4 One hundred years of international crises, 1918–2018 78
Jonathan Wilkenfeld and David Quinn
5 Regime, power, state capacity, and the use of violence in gray zone international crises 110
Egle E. Murauskaite, David Quinn, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Corinne S. DeFrancisci
6 Escalation management in gray zone crises: the proxy factor 143
Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Egle E. Murauskaite, David Quinn, Devin H. Ellis, Allison Astorino-Courtois, and Corinne S. DeFrancisci
7 Public opinion in the gray zone 174
Catarina P. Thomson
8 Modeling and analyzing gray zone scenarios for crises in the Aegean Sea and South China Sea 201
Alexander H. Levis
9 Exploring the role of U.S. information operations in gray zone crises 231
Devin H. Ellis
10 Toolkit for planners and operators in gray zone crisis environments 249
Robert J. Elder and Allison Astorino-Courtois

Index 275
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