Hardback
Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning
Futures Thinking
9781035310579 Edward Elgar Publishing
This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations.
More Information
Critical Acclaim
Contents
More Information
This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations.
Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field.
With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.
Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field.
With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.
Critical Acclaim
‘Scenario planning, as an anticipatory practice, is an important and ever-developing field of professional activity. The knowledge forming the basis for methods used continues to evolve through research and reflective practice, giving the field greater robustness. The impressive contributions to this book provide a source of well researched contemporary thinking and knowledge on many areas that connect to understanding, designing and implementing scenario planning. I would recommend this book to anyone concerned with methodological developments in scenario planning.’
– Ted Fuller, Emeritus Professor and UNESCO Chair on Responsible Foresight for Sustainable Development, University of Lincoln, UK
‘This book presents diverse voices from academia and practice – with a mix of cultures, disciplines and countries – that challenge our mostly Western views of scenario planning. Its twenty-two chapters range from methodological chaos and limits of rationality to decolonizing the future and scenarios about AI and LGBTQ rights. The chapters combined scan scenario planning’s periphery broadly and point to promising developments for the field.’
– Paul J.H. Schoemaker, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA, and author of Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning
‘With a diverse range of authors, the range of topics covered in this book is unusually wide, going from “sorting out the methodological chaos of scenario planning” to the practicalities of how to do it. The book is, in my view, the best guide for two major audiences; the first is for those who have been involved in the field of scenario planning, for whom the book provides a comprehensive framework to deepen their understanding and evaluate the quality of scenarios and their effects. The second audience is those who are new to scenario planning and wish to learn about the field, for whom the book provides a wide range and invaluable source of knowledge and understanding.’
– Ronald Bradfield, University of Strathclyde, UAE and Europe
– Ted Fuller, Emeritus Professor and UNESCO Chair on Responsible Foresight for Sustainable Development, University of Lincoln, UK
‘This book presents diverse voices from academia and practice – with a mix of cultures, disciplines and countries – that challenge our mostly Western views of scenario planning. Its twenty-two chapters range from methodological chaos and limits of rationality to decolonizing the future and scenarios about AI and LGBTQ rights. The chapters combined scan scenario planning’s periphery broadly and point to promising developments for the field.’
– Paul J.H. Schoemaker, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA, and author of Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning
‘With a diverse range of authors, the range of topics covered in this book is unusually wide, going from “sorting out the methodological chaos of scenario planning” to the practicalities of how to do it. The book is, in my view, the best guide for two major audiences; the first is for those who have been involved in the field of scenario planning, for whom the book provides a comprehensive framework to deepen their understanding and evaluate the quality of scenarios and their effects. The second audience is those who are new to scenario planning and wish to learn about the field, for whom the book provides a wide range and invaluable source of knowledge and understanding.’
– Ronald Bradfield, University of Strathclyde, UAE and Europe
Contents
Contents
Introduction 1
PART I FOUNDATION
1 Sorting out the “methodological chaos”: A tour of the main methodological structures of scenario planning 7
Jörg M. Delhaes, Ana C. L. Vieira, , António Alvarenga and Mónica D. Oliveira
2 Update on a theoretical model of scenario planning: Empirical evidence and supporting research – towards a theory 33
Thomas J. Chermack and Jessica M. Serkey Bishop
PART II FRAMING CONSIDERATIONS
3 Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection 54
James Derbyshire
4 The wayfinder’s approach to futures 73
Mushfiqa Monica Jamaluddin, Heba Alhadyian and Abdulrahman Alsulaimi
5 Reframing and futures literacy: Tackling the poverty of the modern imagination 96
Kwamou Eva Feukeu
6 The wilds beyond 2x2 futures: An enquiry into decolonising foresight 118
Sophia Bazile and Geci Karuri-Sebina
7 Exploring cultural diversity in scenario planning and futures thinking practices 142
Per Dannemand Andersen and Monamie B. Haines
PART III DEVELOPING SCENARIO STORYLINES
8 From causality to relationality: (Re)emplotting scenarios 165
Adam Cowart
9 Designing scenarios from stakeholders’ acts: Directions and lessons from extreme strategic action scenarios 182
Fabrice Roubelat and Anne Marchais-Roubelat
PART IV PROCESS INTERVENTIONS
10 Examining emotion in the facilitation of scenario planning 201
Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol
11 Exploring creativity and insight in the scenario process 220
Gökhan Gökmen and Peter McKiernan
12 In the thick of it: Scenario planning at a time of crisis 243
Maureen Meadows, Alessandro Merendino and Frances A. O’Brien
13 Team diversity in scenario planning: Theoretical insights and implications for team composition 265
Harry Patria and Efstathios Tapinos
14 Leveraging AI for strategic foresight: Unveiling future horizons 285
Elena Fitkov-Norris and Nataliya Kocheva
PART V PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
15 The government foresight framework 306
Mariam Saif Al Mansoori
16 Designing utopian queer futures – Using scenario planning to think critically about the queer experience of artificial intelligence 329
Dawn McAra-Hunter
17 The COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call: Delphi-based scenarios and their implications for the generics and biosimilars industry 2030+ 353
Nick Lange, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Stefanie Kisgen
18 Methodological exploration of improved reference scenario approaches: A case study in NOVA SBE Executive Education 372
António Alvarenga and Ana C. L. Vieira
PART VI OUTCOMES AND VALIDATIONS
19 Foresight, strategy, and impact 391
Adam Vigdor Gordon
20 A conceptual framework to evaluate scenarios and futures 402
Daniel J. W. Arthur and Graham W. Winch
21 Measuring the quality of scenarios generated using the simple scenarios technique 431
Dilek Önkal and Mandeep K. Dhami
22 Evaluating effects of scenario planning: Lessons from medical research 454
Shardul S. Phadnis
Introduction 1
PART I FOUNDATION
1 Sorting out the “methodological chaos”: A tour of the main methodological structures of scenario planning 7
Jörg M. Delhaes, Ana C. L. Vieira, , António Alvarenga and Mónica D. Oliveira
2 Update on a theoretical model of scenario planning: Empirical evidence and supporting research – towards a theory 33
Thomas J. Chermack and Jessica M. Serkey Bishop
PART II FRAMING CONSIDERATIONS
3 Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection 54
James Derbyshire
4 The wayfinder’s approach to futures 73
Mushfiqa Monica Jamaluddin, Heba Alhadyian and Abdulrahman Alsulaimi
5 Reframing and futures literacy: Tackling the poverty of the modern imagination 96
Kwamou Eva Feukeu
6 The wilds beyond 2x2 futures: An enquiry into decolonising foresight 118
Sophia Bazile and Geci Karuri-Sebina
7 Exploring cultural diversity in scenario planning and futures thinking practices 142
Per Dannemand Andersen and Monamie B. Haines
PART III DEVELOPING SCENARIO STORYLINES
8 From causality to relationality: (Re)emplotting scenarios 165
Adam Cowart
9 Designing scenarios from stakeholders’ acts: Directions and lessons from extreme strategic action scenarios 182
Fabrice Roubelat and Anne Marchais-Roubelat
PART IV PROCESS INTERVENTIONS
10 Examining emotion in the facilitation of scenario planning 201
Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol
11 Exploring creativity and insight in the scenario process 220
Gökhan Gökmen and Peter McKiernan
12 In the thick of it: Scenario planning at a time of crisis 243
Maureen Meadows, Alessandro Merendino and Frances A. O’Brien
13 Team diversity in scenario planning: Theoretical insights and implications for team composition 265
Harry Patria and Efstathios Tapinos
14 Leveraging AI for strategic foresight: Unveiling future horizons 285
Elena Fitkov-Norris and Nataliya Kocheva
PART V PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
15 The government foresight framework 306
Mariam Saif Al Mansoori
16 Designing utopian queer futures – Using scenario planning to think critically about the queer experience of artificial intelligence 329
Dawn McAra-Hunter
17 The COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call: Delphi-based scenarios and their implications for the generics and biosimilars industry 2030+ 353
Nick Lange, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Stefanie Kisgen
18 Methodological exploration of improved reference scenario approaches: A case study in NOVA SBE Executive Education 372
António Alvarenga and Ana C. L. Vieira
PART VI OUTCOMES AND VALIDATIONS
19 Foresight, strategy, and impact 391
Adam Vigdor Gordon
20 A conceptual framework to evaluate scenarios and futures 402
Daniel J. W. Arthur and Graham W. Winch
21 Measuring the quality of scenarios generated using the simple scenarios technique 431
Dilek Önkal and Mandeep K. Dhami
22 Evaluating effects of scenario planning: Lessons from medical research 454
Shardul S. Phadnis
