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Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy

9781847200990 Edward Elgar Publishing

Edited by Robert L. Clark, Professor of Economics and Professor of Management, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, North Carolina State University, US, Naohiro Ogawa, Deputy Director, Nihon University Population Research Institute and Professor, Advanced Research Institute for the Sciences and Humanities, Nihon University, Japan and Andrew Mason, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Adjunct Senior Fellow, East-West Center, Hawaii, US

Publication Date: November 2007 ISBN: 978 1 84720 099 0 Extent: 320 pp

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Population aging is a global phenomenon that influences not only the industrialized countries of Asia and the West, but also many middle- and low- income countries that have experienced rapid fertility decline and achieved long life expectancies. This book explores how workers and consumers are responding to population aging and examines how economic growth, generational equity, trade and international capital flows are influenced by population aging.

The contributors draw on the experience of the developing and industrialized worlds and on countries in Asia, North America, and Europe. They offer new evidence about micro-level responses of labor force participation, earnings, and savings to actual and/or perceived demographic change. Their broad perspective on population aging spans the entire demographic transition and demonstrates the importance of effective policy response in the early stages of population aging. Also included are policy analyses that explore the use of tax policy, financial reform, and policies targeting immigration and procreation.

This insightful study will prove invaluable to students and scholars of population economics, public sector economics, welfare economics, social economics, and public finance. Pension analysts and government policymakers will find the material of great practical use.

Contributors

Contributors: D.E. Bloom, D. Canning, R. Clark, D. de la Croix, A. Gosseries, R. Guest, P.S. Heller, H. Hock, R. Lee, T. Lindh, B. Mahlberg, Maliki, B. Malmberg, A. Mason, R. Matsukura, M. Moore, K. Nemoto, N. Ogawa, A. Prskawetz, V. Skirbekk, Y. Song, D.N. Weil

Contents

Contents:

Preface

PART I: INTRODUCTION
1. Economic and Policy Implications of Population Aging
Robert Clark, Andrew Mason and Naohiro Ogawa

PART II: POPULATION AGING AND LABOR MARKETS
2. Population Aging, Changing Retirement Policies and Lifetime Earnings Profiles in Japan
Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa and Rikiya Matsukura

3. Firm Productivity, Work-force Age and Educational Structure in Austrian Industries in 2001
Alexia Prskawetz, Bernhard Mahlberg and Vegard Skirbekk

4. The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States
David E. Bloom, David Canning, Michael Moore and Younghwan Song

PART III: SAVING AND WEALTH
5. Modeling the Effects of Population Aging on Consumption in the Presence of Intergenerational Transfers
Heinrich Hock and David N. Weil

6. Transfers, Capital and Consumption Over the Demographic Transition
Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee

7. Effects of Age Structure on Investment, Saving and Trade
Thomas Lindh and Bo Malmberg

8. Population Aging and Health Care Spending in Japan: Public- and Private-sector Responses
Naohiro Ogawa, Andrew Mason, Maliki, Rikiya Matsukura and Kazuro Nemoto

PART IV: POLICY
9. Procreation, Migration and Tradable Quotas
David de la Croix and Axel Gosseries

10. Australia’s Future Fund: A Social Welfare Analysis
Ross Guest

11. Is Asia Prepared for an Aging Population?
Peter S. Heller

Index