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The Making of National Economic Forecasts
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The Making of National Economic Forecasts

9781847204899 Edward Elgar Publishing
Edited by the late Lawrence R. Klein, former Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, US and 1980 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences
Publication Date: 2009 ISBN: 978 1 84720 489 9 Extent: 400 pp
This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently – at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly – depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material.

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Critical Acclaim
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Contents
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This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently – at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly – depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material.

The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.

At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Critical Acclaim
‘In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended.’
– I. Walter, Choice
Contributors
Contributors: S.R. Basu, Y.C.K. Chung, A. Coutiño, V. Eskin, M. Gusev, G. Guzmán, Y. Inada, L.R. Klein, F.I. Kushnirsky, W. Mak, S. Özmucur, A. Roudoi
Contents
Contents:

Preface

1. Background to National Economic Forecasts and the High-frequency Model of the USA
Lawrence R. Klein

2. Forecasting the Sustainability of China’s Economic Performance: Early Twenty-first Century and Beyond
Wendy Mak

3. The Economic Growth Story in India: Past, Present and Prospects for the Future
Sudip Ranjan Basu

4. High-frequency Forecasting Model for the Russian Economy
Vladimir Eskin and Mikhail Gusev

5. Short-term Forecasting of Key Indicators of the German Economy
Andrei Roudoi

6. Mexico: Current Quarter Forecasts
Alfredo Coutiño

7. A High-frequency Forecasting Model and its Application to the Japanese Economy
Yoshihisa Inada

8. The Making of National Economic Forecasts: South Korea
You Chan ‘Kevin’ Chung

9. Current Quarter Model for Turkey
Süleyman Özmucur

10. Estimation of the US Treasury Yield Curve at Daily and Intra-Daily Frequency
Lawrence R. Klein and Süleyman Özmucur

11. Using Data and Models at Mixed Frequencies in Computation and Forecasting
Fyodor I. Kushnirsky

12. Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns
Giselle Guzmán

Appendix: Preliminary Analysis of Brazil
Andrei Roudoi

Index
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